Is it getting hot in here?
This story needs to be read.
Not long ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued some projections on the effects of global warming on the arctic polar ice cap. They issued several projections for when that ice cap would be completely melted, and the most aggressive of these projections called for the cap to be gone by 2050.
2050 is somewhat dire, but let's face it, it's easy to ignore. Most people my age and older will be dead by then. Those who are still alive will be octogenarians or older. Not that this is any excuse to ignore a problem which will affect our children (my youngest will be just about my age in 2050), but still, 43 years is a long time.
According to a new study and new measurements just published, the arctic cap is disappearing at a far greater rate than even the most aggressive projection of the IPCC, and based on those measurements, arctic ice will be entirely gone by 2020. 13 years from now. The vast majority of people my age will live to see that, being only in our mid 50s. The odds are not insignificant that my parents or my wife's will be alive to see it happen. My oldest child will only be twice his current age.
This terrifies me. Worse than the war on terror, worse than ill conceived wars in middle east nations, worse than the fact that we've got what appear to be a moron and a psychopath running the country. Because we're not taking it seriously. In the face of all evidence, we're not taking it seriously. Just how bad do things have to get before we take it seriously?
When the "worst case scenario" estimates start seeming conservative compared to reality, shouldn't we be doing something about this TODAY?
Maybe it's just the after-midnight, everything-seems-more-dire circumstance making me so alarmed, but really, it seems as though by now we should have gotten well past the "science is still out on whether it's happening" phase and moved on to the "what can we do to mitigate this disaster". We put so many resources into fighting a war on terror, when terrorists on their best days couldn't take out as many people as are projected to die if global temperatures rise by just a few average degrees.
Just some dire, insomnia fueled thoughts for this night.
posted by Liam at 5/01/2007 11:58:00 PM
7 Comments:
Hmmm, global warming. Just what do you suppose we should do about it? Should we send a memo to the sun and ask it to turn it down a little? Get all our big countries to pull together to once and for all cut out the polluting? (Yeah, I think they'll come around, once they stop fighting.) Put signs up next to ocean front properities that say "For godsakes, head for high ground!!"?
Well, considering I happen to live in a region where the highest elevation is one foot, I think it best that I just make better use of my time thinking about finally getting that cabin in the mountains, sooner rather than later. Yeah, that's it.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007 11:43:00 PM
I don't know, I don't think anyone does.
But it really doesn't give us high marks for species intelligence if we can ruin our environment, KNOW that we're doing it, and not be able to stop.
Then again, it doesn't give us many marks for intelligence that we can smoke, eat fatty fast foods, not exercise, etc etc that we know are bad for us even though we know these things are bad for us.
I wrote an essay some time back which seemed to be about beer, only the twist ending is that it wasn't yeasts polluting an environment of water, grain and sugar but humans polluting an environment of earth, air, fire and water which ended up creating the intoxicant in question.
I'd like to think that as a group we're smarter than yeast. So far, though, it's not really looking like it.
Liam.
Thursday, May 24, 2007 6:38:00 AM
Hey, yeast are people too! Ok, maybe not. (And btw, that was one of my favorite stories)
People shouldn't pollute, no argument there. I'm just not sure that dire predictions of our inevitable fate of annilation (?sp) will be enough incentive. Us humans don't take disasters, past or future, too seriously. Look at New Orleans, I don't recall hearing of a sign saying "New Orleans has moved to higher ground."
It may only be that it won't be until the sea has risen enough to submerge half our country that the people who have moved to higher ground will think more seriously about not polluting what little space they have left.
But then again, we only need to put the fear into the powers that be. Apparently that's worked a little, now that Al Gore has risen to fame as a global environmentalist. And hey, anything that can convince us to pollute less is alright by me. I'm just skeptical it can happen. But if we pollute less even just a little, we'll be a better place, or at least buy us another year on this planet.
Thursday, May 24, 2007 10:58:00 PM
Actually, your comment about fear is a good point very well taken.
I think one of our problems is politicians these days, and particularly this Administration, selling us a constant diet of fear. We as American citizens have had a steady diet of "don't look now, but the bogeyman is out to get you, if you want to avoid it (vote for us, don't vote for them, don't question the war, be good little sheep, whatever)" that perhaps we've lost the ability to be afraid even when it's warranted.
If someone scares you often enough and long enough, pretty soon you become immune to fear, or you'd no longer be able to function at all. And human nature being what it is, rather than actually spend any time trying to separate out those who have some basis for their fear mongering from those who are simply using fear to further their political agenda, many of us just decide to stop listening.
As, I note, the Democrats have stopped doing to the people who voted them in. A clearer mandate on the war there couldn't really be than last November's elections, and what do they do? Back down and give in with little changed from the previous "rubber stamp" Congress except for a new nicknack on the back of the toilet in the hopes that it will take the focus off of the raw sewage overflowing the bowl.
Liam.
Thursday, May 24, 2007 11:17:00 PM
Fear is fear. The administration works behind the scenes to put the fear of god in their opponents. Bush has his cronies keep their feet on the gasline to control us with fear of bogus gas shortages. And during election campaigning, politicians rock no boats before their time.
And as you said, fear nowadays is crying wolf. But it's not that simple. In our country the gap between the haves and the have nots is greater than it's ever been. And for the people with the have nots (or have little or what they have is dwindling), fear of economic retribution is real.
It's sad that Congress has backed down. How many more will die, and how many more will die or nearly so from disasters at home where there is no longer National Guard that usually help us?
And in this age of being desensitized by the internet, media and the cry-wolf syndrome, I suspect any public outcry would have to be pretty darn loud. But it's hard to picket Washington when you can't afford the gas to get there.
Friday, May 25, 2007 10:51:00 AM
Very true. And sadly, we've become so jaded as a society that that kind of mass uprising just doesn't happen any more.
In years past, you heard about demonstrations. These days, with the internet, it's so easy to whip one together that they don't really mean much.
I really don't know what the solution is to the problem, unfortunately. We have a situation where almost everyone (not just the poor) are beginning to feel disenfranchised.
I'm certainly not poor by any stretch, I'm probably in the "upper middle class" if you go by that sort of ranking, and yet I also feel like my wishes are not being represented by our government.
We've been so divided by about 12 years of "us vs. them" particularly on the part of the neo-conservatives who have hijacked the otherwise noble goals of the Republican party, and by 6 years of blatant lying and outright ignoring of laws and the will of the people that most are viewing politics these days as either something to be avoided at all cost, or else something to treat like a sporting event. If we can't have any input and we really don't know who is going to do what anyway, why not just join a "team" and root for them come hell or high water.
Sigh.
It's enough to make you wonder if, like Rome and many other great societies before us, our time is passing and our society is declining.
Liam.
Friday, May 25, 2007 11:24:00 AM
Aww, maybe it's not so dire. We're just going through change. (Aren't we always?) Our society doesn't handle change well.
Look at the bright side -- this administration will end, this too shall pass. Strange how the course of our administration history hinged on a few computer chads. So who knows, maybe nirvana is just around the corner. And heck, think how wonderful it will be not to have to see that Bush face in the news all the time. We just need a smarter and smarter looking President. Liam for President!
Friday, May 25, 2007 9:45:00 PM
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