It's Really Past Time

It's really time for Senator Clinton to get out of this race.

Using Slate.com's Delegate Calculator, I've done some analyses of the race as it exists today.

If we assume (as seems to be the common wisdom) that Indiana will be a virtual tie and North Carolina will be won by Obama by a small margin (say 55 to 45), then Clinton needs to take over 80% of the vote in all of the remaining contests to win the popular delegate count.

Even if you seat all of the FL and MI delegates, she needs to win more than two-thirds of the vote in every remaining contest to take the lead in popular delegates. (Note, to determine the allocation of FL and MI delegates, I noted that Clinton won MI with 55% to 40% "uncommitted", and so assumed a 57/43 pro-Clinton split was fair. FL is murkier, she won 50% but he only won 33%, with Edwards taking the lion's share of the balance. Most Edwards supporters have been tilting towards Obama, but I went with a 65/35 pro-Clinton win, to be extremely conservative).

It would seem to me that in light of this, it's nearly mathematically impossible for Clinton to win, and just as unlikely that the so-called "super delegates" will find her to be so convincingly better a candidate as to override the "will of the people".

She should really get out, preserve some of her dignity and (more importantly) stop shredding the reputation of her party.

Liam.