Warfare vs Diplomacy

And now to the second topic for today: Warfare.

I've been thinking about the shape of the world today, and our response to it. In many ways, the world is poised on a razors edge today, and I fear we need the rationality of diplomacy far more than we need the hot-headed testosterone of a war hero (especially one who is by all accounts subject to "rages").

First, there are the two wars we know about. Afghanistan, which has been festering as we've ignored it pursuing other wars, and the red herring Iraq, which is "doing much better since the surge", but about which General Petraeus said two days ago "I don't think I will ever declare Victory in Iraq", and which by some reports is poised to flare back up again, leading the Bush administration to announce that the number of troops in Iraq on the day he leaves office will still be at higher than pre-surge numbers.

Then there are the ones we've talked about, like Iran, a country which I'm fairly certain we would already have attacked were it not for the strained state of our military. When you can barely get enough soldiers to keep the existing wars from spiraling into chaos, only an extremist or a moron starts a third fight. There are similar rumblings about South Korea and Venezuela, of course, but as long as Kim Jong Il and Hugo Chavez confine themselves to inflammatory statements, the same logic holds true as for Iran.

Then there's the recent Georgia/Russia conflict, which is setting up to start another cold war between us and Russia. Right now, Putin and Bush are in the "strut and display" phase of conflict, where neither is quite ready to commit to anything, but both are puffing out their chests and beating on them in an attempt to intimidate the other, and if neither backs down, if cooler heads do not prevail, if diplomacy is not at least attempted, that could easily lead to more fighting, especially if Georgia joins NATO and the U.S. becomes bound by treaty to get involved in their wars. Add to this mix the self-styled military hero and (as I mentioned) hot headed McCain and you're throwing a lit match into a dynamite factory.

Finally, there are lots of countries out there who are not happy with us or with the Bush administration, and per the article that I read (and as I recall, posted) a few days ago, the election of John McCain may well send the message to the rest of the world that rather than a basically good country with one questionable leader, we've actually become a nation of belligerent, preemptively-striking bullies, and many of them may decide "the heck with them". There's also newly ascendant superpower China, with no real reason to hit us right now, but no real reason to fear us either. Any of these could look at the state of our armed forces, particularly here at home, and decide that the time is ripe for an attack. Admittedly the chance of that at this moment is probably small, but a few more years of weakening of our military, a few more years of bluster and BS in place of diplomacy, a few more countries insulted by "our way or the highway" posturing and it's not beyond the realm of possibility that someone (or heaven forbid, some combination of someones) decides that we're ripe for the plucking.

I think it's very possible that with this election, we face the choice between a peaceful next several years and one which stretches our military beyond the breaking point, and who knows what happens then? The draft? We start losing wars?

I'm not really exaggerating much at all when I tell you I am literally terrified of the prospect of a McCain administration to follow up the last 8 years.

Liam.