A Theory

I know, I'm as guilty as anyone for repeating the things I've heard, but I want to get this theory out there and posted, so that if I turn out to be right (as so rarely happens when I prognosticate), I have some proof.

I'm beginning to think some of the more outlandish claims about Sarah Palin may be an orchestrated campaign... by the Republicans. (This isn't a conspiracy theory, it's Rovian politics 101, I'm just trying to see if I've figured out the playbook, tell me if you don't think this is at least POSSIBLE).

Think about it.

First rumor: Trig Palin isn't actually Sarah Palin's son, but Bristol Palin's son, Sarah's grandson. Plant a few faked seeds, conspiracy lovers will go nuts finding other corroborating "evidence".

Second rumor: Sarah Palin had an affair with her husband's business partner. Don't even need to plant much evidence, just have someone leak something to the Enquirer, fresh off of their victory in the Edwards case they look pretty credible, but they're still the same old Enquirer, so it shouldn't be too difficult to make them think they have a story.

Latest rumor: Trig Palin actually IS Sarah's baby... with that business partner. Yes, I heard this one earlier tonight (well, late yesterday, technically). Supposedly (per the rumor) going to be part of the Enquirer article next week. Again, if it actually is in the article, not terribly hard to get the Enquirer to print it.


So now go back a few weeks. You're the Republican party / McCain campaign, and you have a good candidate for up-and-coming star that you want to nominate as VP, but you know she's low on experience, something you've been hammering your competitor for, and that there may be one or two little ethical violations or perhaps her provenance as a cutter of pork barrel spending isn't as solid as you'd like it to be.

What do you do? Manage expectations. Make her the victim. Start a few rumors like these. Let it sit for a couple of weeks to really marinate (including all of the people who will start to believe it all because "if it wasn't true, they'd at least bring out the birth certificate and show it to us").

Finally, come out with some perfect bit of evidence that destroys most of the extreme rumors you've created. In this case, a DNA test proving that Sarah Palin's husband Todd is Trig's biological father and Sarah is Trig's biological mother.

But since the three rumors have been allowed to reach maximum volume, now Governor Palin looks like the victim of an organized smear campaign (which she was, just not by her opponents), and thus all criticism of her becomes suspect, even the more reasonable (and perhaps true) ones, such as that she really doesn't have any more experience than your main competitor (whom you continue to slam for it) or that she's still under an investigation (that you're trying to squash) for certain unethical behaviors as Mayor and Governor or that she lobbied FOR the bridge to nowhere before she was against it (and even though she was against it, somehow the state of Alaska still kept the money... just spent it on other things).

I have no proof of this, of course. I'm not even sure I believe it. It's a theory, and one the veracity of which we'll probably never know for sure. (Heck, I'm not even sure if modern DNA tests can differentiate between a parent and a grandparent. I believe they could, because if the baby was fathered by anyone other than another child of Sarah and Todd, there would be elements of the DNA not contributed by either Sarah or Todd, but I don't know for sure).

But you have to admit, it sounds like the sort of slick politics that MIGHT be played.

So I'll tell you what: If the campaign addresses these rumors within the next week or so, I'll buy that they did it quickly and decisively and it probably wasn't them behind it. But if they wait until the end of September and then swoop in with their proof and try to turn her into Saint Sarah of Arc, political martyr, I'll assume that I was right.

Liam.